Stocks, Flows and Valuation Effects of Foreign Assets and Liabilities: Do they Matter?

Abstract

During the last few years, large holdings of foreign assets and liabilities along with an increasing relevance of the valuation effects—capital gains or losses—have characterized global financial integration. This paper presents an empirical assessment of the implications of stocks, flows and valuation adjustments in external crises, sovereign credit ratings and the long-run dynamics of real exchange rates (RER), in both industrial and developing economies. We find that foreign assets and liabilities are rather distinctive external holdings with different implications in the occurrence of an external crisis. Valuation adjustments have an impact on crises, although quantitatively not very large. Portfolio liabilities (particularly equity) increase the probability of current account reversals, while the likelihood of sudden stops increases with foreign direct investment assets. In the case of sovereign credit ratings, we find a noteworthy effect of the stock and flows of FDI liabilities on improvin sovereign ratings. Finally, as for the RER, gross assets and liabilities appear equally important, but components of external holdings have considerably different effects. While the cumulative current account is associated with real depreciation, the valuation effect is strongly linked with real currency appreciations in developing economies.