Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy and Central Bank Capitalization

Abstract

This paper offers stochastic projections of the Central Bank of Chile’s balance sheet (stocks and flows), grounded on its present deficit situation. These projections incorporate the effect on the balance sheet of some macroeconomic variables and alternative policies, taking into consideration the economy’s inherent uncertainty and risks. It also describes and evaluates the main causes of the current deficit. In the baseline scenario, our deterministic projections show that the Central Bank’s capital will tend to grow and reach positive figures after twenty-five years. However, statistical projections indicate that this capital will continue in the red twenty-five years into the future with a 69% probability. On the other hand, a capital contribution of 7% of GDP would be necessary for senior liabilities not to surpass assets in ten years’ time, with a 95% probability. The likely evolution of capital is more favorable in the long run if the reserve hoarding growth rate is moderated, if minimum capital is established in real terms instead of nominal terms, and if accrued, unrealized, foreign exchange gains are not distributed.